What we published, and how it ended
We publish the detections and then say how they ended. These are the history's figures, computed from the closed cases, with their sample alongside.
Computed track record
Closed cases only · nothing estimated- Closed cases
- 0
- 13 published · 15 analysed
- Success rate
- N/D
- 0 of 0 decided · 0 unconfirmed, left out of the rate
- Median time to outcome
- N/D
- Sample: 0
- Mean premium over unaffected (T-1)
- N/D
- Completed · sample: 0
- Mean return from announcement
- N/D
- Completed and failed, with a documented outcome date · sample: 0
- Realised IRR (median, compound)
- N/D
- Only with a documented outcome date · sample: 0
- Mean spread: announcement → close
- N/DN/D
- Completed · sample: 0 → 0
Without an account, the economic figures read N/D until there are 5 cases: with fewer, a mean or a median is one specific case's figure.
A case enters the history once its outcome is recorded. Until then the counters read 0 and the figures N/D: we do not show a number that cannot be computed.
Two returns, two questions
- Premium over unaffected (T-1): what was offered to whoever already held the share, over the unaffected price the official document states or, when it states none, the close of the last session before the announcement's first official filing.
- Return from announcement: what a buyer after the news made, from the first quote recorded after the announcement to what was paid (or to the price at the outcome if the deal failed). Only with a documented outcome date, for completed and failed deals alike; a partial offer, which prorates, reads N/D.
- Realised IRR: that return, compounded per year, only when the outcome date is documented. Without that date, N/D.
Where these numbers come from
- Some cases come in through the regulator, others through a press alert. We store which, and the alert is never shown as a source.
- We only link to regulators, exchanges and official registries. If a case has none, it is left with no link rather than citing a wire.
- On closing we store the outcome and the spread it came to offer. That record is what you see above.
- Discarded ones are kept with their reason. That is why «analysed» exceeds «published»: it is the honest denominator.
This is a record of what happened. The returns are each case's, from the first quote after the announcement to its outcome: not a forecast and not the return of any portfolio. Sonsolodatos does not recommend investments, does not manage money and does not execute orders.
With the free account you see every closed case: its outcome, its source and both of its returns.