Sector overview — Utilities (no deals on record)

2. Structural Trends and Drivers of Change

The most decisive driver of the sector is the acceleration of electricity demand growth. According to the International Energy Agency (Global Energy Review 2026), global electricity demand grew year-on-year by around 3% in 2025, moderating from 4.4% in 2024, when intense heatwaves boosted electricity consumption. Even with that moderation, the 2025 growth rate remained above the annual average of 2.8% observed between 2014 and 2024 and was more than double the pace of growth of energy as a whole. The agency itself frames this phenomenon as an era change: according to the International Energy Agency (Electricity 2025), strong growth in electricity demand is inaugurating a new Age of Electricity, with consumption set to soar through 2027, driven by the electrification of buildings, transport and industry, combined with growing demand for air conditioning and data centres.

Within that demand, the vector of greatest relative growth is computing associated with artificial intelligence. According to the International Energy Agency, the electricity demand of data centres soared by 17% in 2025, and that of AI-focused data centres grew even faster, far outstripping the 3% growth in global electricity demand. In its updated projections, data centres' electricity consumption would roughly double from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030, representing around 3% of global electricity demand by that date. This push is accompanied by an unprecedented technology investment cycle: the International Energy Agency notes that the capital expenditure of five large technology companies exceeded 400 billion dollars in 2025 and is expected to increase by a further 75% in 2026.

To the demand vector are added the supply and cost-of-capital drivers. The first is the transition towards generation that is increasingly renewable and weather-dependent, which forces the reinforcement of networks, storage capacity and flexibility mechanisms. The second is the interest rate cycle: because of their capital intensity and high indebtedness, utilities are especially sensitive to the cost of financing, so that the trajectory of rates conditions both the effective regulatory remuneration and the viability of their investment plans. The conjunction of rising demand, decarbonisation of supply and the need to electrify consumption configures a scenario of structurally growing investment needs in clean generation and, above all, in network infrastructure.

3. Regulatory and Geopolitical Context

The regulatory framework is the factor that most directly determines the profitability of the sector. The network segments operate under regulated remuneration schemes that set a rate on the asset base and multi-year regulatory periods, so that revisions of those frameworks —remuneration rate, treatment of investments and cost sharing— are the main determinant of the value of network companies. In parallel, the design of wholesale markets, capacity mechanisms, long-term contracts and renewable auctions structure the revenues of the competitive segments.

The geopolitical dimension has gained relevance since the energy crisis that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which reordered gas flows towards Europe, raised the political priority of security of supply and accelerated renewable deployment targets. Against this backdrop, several axes of public scrutiny operate: the control of concentrations by competition authorities, especially sensitive when it affects network assets with the character of a natural monopoly; the mechanisms for control of foreign investment, which subject the entry of foreign capital into energy infrastructures considered strategic to authorisation; and the trade and industrial policy surrounding the supply chains of generation, network and storage equipment, where tariffs and local content measures affect deployment costs. The combination of these factors explains why corporate transactions in the sector usually require multiple and lengthy regulatory approvals.

4. Universe of Companies Followed

The platform does not yet follow companies in this sector.

5. What to Watch: Catalysts for Corporate Transactions

Although there are currently no live or closed special situations in the sector within the corpus, its structure and its trends configure several focal points that an investor would do well to watch as potential triggers of corporate transactions, without this constituting a prediction of any transaction.

The first is consolidation driven by investment needs. The demand jump documented by the International Energy Agency and the magnitude of the investment required in clean generation and networks pressure the companies' balance sheets; when that pressure combines with the search for scale to finance capital plans, mergers between operators tend to appear. The anticipatory signals include the upward revision of multi-year investment plans, the deterioration of credit ratios and the appearance of persistent discounts on the regulated asset base.

The second is portfolio rotation through divestments and spin-offs. Integrated groups that need to finance their transition without diluting their shareholders usually resort to the sale of minority stakes in network or renewable assets, or to the separation of regulated and competitive businesses into distinct entities in order to crystallise valuation. It is worth watching announcements of strategic review, the creation of specific vehicles for renewable assets and partial sale transactions of networks to infrastructure funds.

The third is the appetite of infrastructure and strategic capital for regulated assets. The predictability of regulated flows attracts pension funds, insurers and infrastructure vehicles, while the surge in demand linked to data centres —whose 17% growth rate in 2025 the International Energy Agency underscores— generates interest in generation and connection assets close to the load. The signals to follow are stake-takings by financial investors, long-term supply agreements between generators and large technology consumers, and the appearance of premiums in transactions over assets with available interconnection capacity.

Finally, the rate cycle and the regulatory framework act as switches for corporate activity: a fall in the cost of financing makes cheaper the leveraged acquisitions typical of the sector, while favourable or unfavourable regulatory revisions can open or close transaction windows. Monitoring the remuneration review calendars, the decisions of competition authorities and the resolutions on control of foreign investment makes it possible to anticipate at which moments the environment becomes more propitious for special situations to emerge.

Live opportunities

We have no live opportunities in this sector right now. The report is still the map; the moment the radar raises a deal, it shows up here.