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academy · special situations

Academy

How is the list card read?

Each number marks one line or figure of the card; below, what it shows and how it is read. The card is a schematic: it carries no deal's data.

  1. 1Line 1 · Ticker Symbol and Exit Market

    Ticker, exchange and country of the new shares, with the family chip and the days since the announcement. Direct listing on NYSE or NASDAQ avoids Trap 4 (the illiquid purgatory of the OTC Pink Sheets).

  2. 2Line 2 · Reorganised Company and Viability

    Name and sector of the reorganised company. Look for Tier 1 assets that lead their sector, ruling out Trap 5 (secular decline and 'Chapter 22' risk).

  3. 3Line 3 · Court, Confirmation Order and Section 1145

    Labelled «Court», it names the Bankruptcy Court that confirmed the final Plan (§ 1129), with the distribution of shares exempt from registration (Section 1145).

  4. 4Line 4 · Score & DRI

    Two chips: the 0–100 composite Score (IRR, probability of close, break downside and alpha; it is not the case page's RAAS) and the DRI, the Deal Reliability Index. Neither replaces the audit of the 5 forensic traps in the Traps tab.

  5. 5HERO Metric: Spread to the Reference Value

    The spread in percent against the reference price the situation publishes, with the IRR below it (N/D without a formal date). To read it as a discount to the diluted Implied Reorg Price, audit Trap 1 (integrity of the Reorg EV) and Trap 2 (MIP and warrant dilution).

  6. 6Opening Spot Price

    Market price of the new shares, with the offer or reference price below it when there is one. At the open it is usually depressed by the mandate mismatch and forced selling by credit funds (Trap 3).

  7. 7Deleveraged Balance Sheet & Spot Multiple (on the case page)

    The card shows neither net cash nor a multiple: the reorganisation EV, net debt and fully diluted shares are in the Reorganisation tab, and the downside to the unaffected price in the Summary. Look for positive net cash and a depressed pro-forma EV/EBITDA multiple versus sector peers.

  8. 8Footer: Catalyst Stage and Fresh-Start Accounting

    The footer shows the current stage and the close date (formal or estimated). The family's catalysts are the publication of audited financial statements under ASC 852 and the exhaustion of institutional selling pressure.